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Ex-Cubs Factor
The Ex-Cubs Factor (or Ex-Cub Factor) is a seemingly spurious correlation that is essentially a corollary to the Curse of the Billy Goat. Widely published in the 1990s, the hypothesis asserts that since the last appearance by the Chicago Cubs in the 1945 World Series, any baseball team headed into the World Series with three or more former Cubs on its roster has "a critical mass of Cubness" and a strong likelihood of failure.〔
==Ex-Cubs Factor hypothesis==
The theory was developed in October 15, 1981 by Ron Berler, a freelance journalist and Cubs fan. Berler posited in an article that "it is utterly impossible for a team with three or more ex-Cubs to win the series." Berler based this on a pattern that he observed in the post-1945 (the last year the Chicago Cubs made it to a World Series) era.
Berler cited many examples of teams with three or more ex-Cubs on their teams that reached the World Series and lost: including the 1958 Milwaukee Braves, the 1966 Los Angeles Dodgers, and the 1978 Los Angeles Dodgers. The 1978 Dodgers, according to Berler, had lost the 1977 World Series with three ex-Cubs on their roster and seemed to be doing well the next season when they traded one of those ex-Cubs (Mike Garman) away and began playing excellently. However, four weeks later, the Dodgers traded for ex-Cub Bill North and, in the words of Berler, the "team suffered an immediate tailspin and barely beat Cincinnati to the pennant."〔 The 1978 Dodgers lost the World Series to the Yankees leading to Berler's hypothesis of three ex-Cubs making it impossible to win a championship. In addition, the 1980 Kansas City Royals lost the World Series as well with 3 ex-Cubs.
In the original article, Berler predicted that based on this pattern the 1981 New York Yankees would not win the World Series because they had five ex-Cubs on their roster (Oscar Gamble, Bobby Murcer, Dave LaRoche, Rick Reuschel, and Barry Foote), this prediction went against the odds which heavily favored the Yankees at the time. His prediction about the 1981 World Series based on this hypothesis was proved correct with the Yankees losing to the Dodgers, four games to two.
抄文引用元・出典: フリー百科事典『 ウィキペディア（Wikipedia）』
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